We can add another horror story to the Republican Party’s impending doom this November. This poll comes via Fox News, which despite the farce that is its namesake, is actually a trustworthy source for poll results. There’s a lot of bad news in there for Republicans, but it can mostly be summarized by the narrowing gender gap in this upcoming election.
If the election for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate in your district or the Republican candidate in your district?
Men typically support the Republican Party, while women support the Democrats. Pew has an excellent visual laying out the difference between the genders from various generations.
If the Republican Party cannot win a majority of men, then the Republican Party as presently constituted will inevitably cease to exist. It’s really that simple. They have clearly alienated an entire generation of millennial women to a staggering and unprecedented degree, which means that they need to run up the score amongst men even more. The fact that the generic congressional ballot produces a split amongst my less intelligent gender should send sirens ringing throughout the Republican Party.
To put into perspective how damaging a poll this is, I imposed those percentages on to both the 2016 presidential electorate, and the 2014 midterm electorate. For a long time, a big problem for Republicans has been that more women vote than men. If this November’s group of voters looks like the 2016 electorate, Democrats will enjoy a +12 advantage on the generic ballot. If it looks like the more GOP-favorable 2014 midterm electorate…Democrats will enjoy a +11 advantage on the generic ballot.
To contextualize how damaging a +11 advantage is, FiveThirtyEight gives the Democrats about a 73% chance to win the House this November, and they say that the Democrats will win the House if they win 5% more of the vote than Republicans. At D+11, FiveThirtyEight forecasts about a 240-195 advantage for the Democrats in the House.
Now, before you get too excited, 73% is roughly the odds they gave Trump of losing in 2016. There is a lot of proactive energy on the left in opposition to Trump, and we are seeing that manifest in poll after poll. However, none of this matters if we don’t follow through on election day and actually show up and vote. So make sure that you’re registered to vote, and get as many friends registered as possible. The Republicans are circulating a list of Trump scandals they fear that the Democrats would investigate if they controlled the House, so even if you are hesitant to vote for the Democrats in general, a vote for them is a vote to rein in a president who clearly believes himself to be above the law.
Jacob Weindling is a staff writer for Paste politics. Follow him on Twitter at @Jakeweindling.